Prospective Fault Displacement Hazard Assessment for Leech River Valley Fault Using Stochastic Source Modeling and Okada Fault Displacement Equations

In this study, an alternative method for conducting probabilistic fault displacement hazard analysis is developed based on stochastic source modeling and analytical formulae evaluating the elastic dislocation due to earthquake rupture. It characterizes uncertainty of fault-rupture occurrence in terms its position, geometry, slip distribution adopts so-called Okada equations calculation ground surface. The compatible with fault-source-based seismic can be implemented via Monte Carlo simulations. new useful differential displacements caused by rupture at multiple locations simultaneously. proposed applied Leech River Valley Fault located vicinity Victoria, British Columbia, Canada. Site-specific curves are assessed sites within zone. results indicate that relatively large (∼0.5 m vertical uplift) expected low probability levels 10−4. For critical infrastructures, such as bridges pipelines, quantifying essential manage potential damage loss effectively.